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Nigeria

partner · Africa

Threat to Europe

Opportunity

Africa’s largest economy and a key counter-instability partner.

Threat dimensions

Military8

Economic16

Technology14

Cyber22

Hybrid25

Energy18

Opportunity dimensions

Trade56

Tech-coop32

Defence-coop35

Alignment35

Relationship trajectory & EU strategy

Short term 0–2 yrs

Emerging partner

Counter Sahel instability & migration drivers.

Medium term 2–7 yrs

Invest

Security, energy & digital-economy partnership.

Long term 7+ yrs

Strategic

Africa’s giant as a long-term security & trade partner.

Europe's vulnerability: Sahel spillover, migration, jihadist & Wagner/Russia inroads.

⚡ Key scenario: Russian (ex-Wagner) expansion in the Sahel undercuts EU influence.

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Scores are Strategic Europe's open-source, European-perspective analytical estimates — analysis, not endorsement. Methodology →